6 July 2024

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After two challenging years of enduring a persistent cost-of-living crisis, there is finally a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Positive changes are on the way that will alleviate financial burdens for UK residents.

The recent announcement reveals that the energy cap will decrease by £300 from April, followed by an additional reduction of over £120 in July. Collectively, these cuts will result in a more than £430 decrease in the average gas and electricity bill by summer, bringing it below £1,500 annually.

Inflation, which surged to four percent in December, is now predicted to fall below the Bank of England’s target of two percent in April. Analysts anticipate a further drop to 1.5 percent in May, maintaining levels below two percent until November. This decline is attributed to the UK importing a significant portion of its gas and electricity, making the nation more resilient to the energy shock as inflation recedes.

EY Item Club has upgraded its growth outlook for the UK in 2024, marking a “turning point” for the previously stagnant economy. Falling inflation, potential interest rate cuts, and anticipated tax reductions contribute to an optimistic forecast.

Homeowners stand to benefit from lower interest rates, with expectations of the Bank of England cutting base rates from 5.25 percent to four percent by year-end. Mortgage rates have already begun to decrease, and this trend is expected to continue.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is reportedly considering over £10 billion worth of tax cuts in the upcoming Budget on March 6, following the reduction of 2p in National Insurance earlier this month. These measures aim to provide relief to taxpayers and improve living standards.

Despite these positive indicators, challenges remain. Approximately 50,000 UK businesses are at risk of collapse due to difficulties in servicing debts. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as Houthi terrorist rebels targeting Western shipping in the Red Sea could impact prices and economic growth.

The Bank of England’s role is crucial in sustaining the positive trajectory. As inflation approaches its two percent target, the call for a swift interest rate cut is emphasized to alleviate pressure on struggling businesses and support the housing market. The overall message is one of cautious optimism, with a plea for prudent actions to avoid derailing the recovery or causing unnecessary economic setbacks.

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